tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56966436835639185562024-03-05T01:29:11.144-08:00The Bird of GoldThe world is taking interesting turns, are you ready for a lifetime experience ride? These blogs can be your driver!! Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-44574573419060741192020-01-12T12:47:00.000-08:002020-01-12T12:50:03.809-08:00The Value of Pi and Global Business cycles <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">For the last few months, I was
studying forecasting and predictions. I studied a few models like ARIMA and
Smoothing and Winter Holt models, and with the use of few data from store sales
prediction to future price predictions I used to play and it’s fun!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Being in an investment field for
more than 6 years, I never found interesting to predict or forecast stock shares
prices. My belief was that share prices or equity markets can’t be predicted
because the price is a reflection of market information and events. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Inequity markets, I firmly
believe that it works in cycles, but never found something like this before. I
am going to share a few insights from the original work and study done by Mr.
Martin Armstrong. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">In the study, Mr. Armstrong
discovered global business cycles. He studied financial pattern between
1683 and 1907. And discovered panic waves yielding 8.6 years. Means 8.6 years of financial
event occurred. Now, interestingly these patterns are shocking because when he
multiplied it with the numbers of days in a year (leap year) 365.25, the value
came to 8.653 * 365.25 = 3146. 769. It was exactly pi * 1000. A pi is a
significant number in math. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDEWE32V-MI8odHGG-LtgK4LQe0_uxKDltS5mF6ZLf8p9HXGVup_x73NTiteMtP-CZjessq8EqJ7rWDwfJuRP5pzIgAalc0j68vw_1uc2mfNIlZmI_LWiM_NI5Y5p9ss3icpw-2xd9pfM/s1600/Untitled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="243" data-original-width="349" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDEWE32V-MI8odHGG-LtgK4LQe0_uxKDltS5mF6ZLf8p9HXGVup_x73NTiteMtP-CZjessq8EqJ7rWDwfJuRP5pzIgAalc0j68vw_1uc2mfNIlZmI_LWiM_NI5Y5p9ss3icpw-2xd9pfM/s1600/Untitled.png" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Now, six small waves of 8.6 years
created one full cycle of 51.6 years. Assume that the red line covers 51.6 years and the blue line covers 8.6 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">NOTE: Before, moving forward one
should know a few important historic financial panic events. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">If we take 1929 (the Great
depression) as the base year and let’s create a chart. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCWusjhxRE67huzf91VAnrlXF2flvhfDd2lXsbCKEX94EL3vzPkS-8UkJSXcz1vAyNzhhpzfCopU_geWz3Uik1twF53GgvwBUk7iIzmELPcXUFH3xFe3lOBTYQXdDZTt5xNzfnaCqQnZM/s1600/IMG_3299.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1031" data-original-width="1600" height="411" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCWusjhxRE67huzf91VAnrlXF2flvhfDd2lXsbCKEX94EL3vzPkS-8UkJSXcz1vAyNzhhpzfCopU_geWz3Uik1twF53GgvwBUk7iIzmELPcXUFH3xFe3lOBTYQXdDZTt5xNzfnaCqQnZM/s640/IMG_3299.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--></span><span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">I</span><span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">n this, 1929 is the base year and
1929 + 51.6 = ~ 1980. In 1980, the US economy was in a deep recession suffering
from high inflation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Now, here, the original study gave six
small cycles (blue line) to complete one big cycle (red cycle), however, I took
4 tipping points in one big business cycle. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">So, I divided 51.6/4 = 12.9 and I
came to a point at 12.9 years (shown as *) in the chart. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">For simplicity, I gave alphabetically
letters from A to I.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, each letter is
at a distance of 12.9 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOSG-PYCkk_dAkN4wnmSf6PNPkfXEKP1gAVAOVdfgkIGicKZx01f3uqPc3NQzj93-LW-zHWalNxJVdAoO8PVbU4cbWnqMGpARpq8TRpZ9dQuIX61U1kd_Cy2HWHb0GuOWYoecyTahF9D4/s1600/IMG_3300.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1051" data-original-width="1600" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOSG-PYCkk_dAkN4wnmSf6PNPkfXEKP1gAVAOVdfgkIGicKZx01f3uqPc3NQzj93-LW-zHWalNxJVdAoO8PVbU4cbWnqMGpARpq8TRpZ9dQuIX61U1kd_Cy2HWHb0GuOWYoecyTahF9D4/s640/IMG_3300.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Now, take historic events for each
alphabetic letter, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">(Years are approximate to
calculation)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">A: 1929 – The great depression<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">B: 1942 – Time of World War 2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">C: 1955 – <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">D: 1967 – <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">E: 1980 – The US economy in deep
recession and high inflation<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">F: 1993 – In 1990 Japan bubble
burst and in 1997 Asian crisis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">G: 2006-7 – Subprime crisis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">H: 2019-20 – Trade Wars<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">I: 2032 - <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">My 12.9 years breakup is little
different than Mr. Armstrong’s study, as I mentioned I divided one big cycle of
51.6 years into 4 financial tipping points. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">In this view, I have taken only a big cycle, however, there are smalls cycle patterns also. But, the reason to
write this blog is to raise alarm, that we are at the tipping point of a big
financial event. As we have seen in the past, somehow pieces are falling
in line, it may be due to politics, bad decisions, greed, assets bubbles,
subprime, etc, but somehow the pieces are taking place ever time. In the future too,
we don’t know which piece falls apart and financial pain triggers. But it does
exist. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Based on the original study and
thought process, it also says that the peak of one nation may be low for another
nation. Which, I believe the slowdown in Western economies could be gain in Asian
economies. Mr. Armstrong also explains about intensity and volatility in his
study, which answers the question, why events do not occur at exact same
time! And why every point in history and the coming future will not be exact time
(year). However, Mr. Armstrong’s The Economic Confidence Model gives exact dates
at 2.15 years of intervals. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">This article is not to influence
any individual or scare any investor. But, to create awareness and make a difference
by being on the right side of the business cycle. </span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-28487719258753374492019-09-09T05:31:00.003-07:002019-09-09T05:31:51.996-07:00Statistics Articles Links<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
1. All about p-value : <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/09/everything-know-about-p-value-from-scratch-data-science/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/09/everything-know-about-p-value-from-scratch-data-science/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29</a><div>
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2. Introduction to Probability : <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIeGtxpvyG-I9m4otjYGCQL_1m0Edm0LA">https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIeGtxpvyG-I9m4otjYGCQL_1m0Edm0LA</a></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-84628454271360815782019-09-09T05:27:00.001-07:002019-09-09T05:27:44.502-07:00Data Science Articles Links<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
1. Extending churn analysis to revenue forecasting using R : <a href="https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/extending-churn-analysis-to-revenue-forecasting-using-r">https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/extending-churn-analysis-to-revenue-forecasting-using-r</a><br />
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2. Exclusive Interview with Sonny Laskar – Kaggle Master and Analytics Vidhya Hackathon Expert: <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/05/exclusive-interview-sonny-laskar-kaggle-master-analytics-vidhya-hackathon-expert/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/05/exclusive-interview-sonny-laskar-kaggle-master-analytics-vidhya-hackathon-expert/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29</a><br />
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3. A Comprehensive Guide to Data Exploration : <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/01/guide-data-exploration/">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/01/guide-data-exploration/</a></div>
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4. Having an Imbalanced Dataset? Here Is How You Can Fix It. : <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/having-an-imbalanced-dataset-here-is-how-you-can-solve-it-1640568947eb">https://towardsdatascience.com/having-an-imbalanced-dataset-here-is-how-you-can-solve-it-1640568947eb</a></div>
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5. Predictive Modeling: The Only Guide You'll Need : <a href="https://www.microstrategy.com/us/resources/introductory-guides/predictive-modeling-the-only-guide-you-need#customer">https://www.microstrategy.com/us/resources/introductory-guides/predictive-modeling-the-only-guide-you-need#customer</a></div>
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6. 1 Innovative Data Visualizations you Should Learn (in Python, R, Tableau and D3.js) : <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/08/11-data-visualizations-python-r-tableau-d3js/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/08/11-data-visualizations-python-r-tableau-d3js/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29</a></div>
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7. Rich with Visulization techniques: <a href="https://bbc.github.io/rcookbook/">https://bbc.github.io/rcookbook/</a></div>
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8. Data Science Product : <a href="https://www.analyticsindiamag.com/13-leading-data-science-products-from-india-that-made-it-big-in-2019/">https://www.analyticsindiamag.com/13-leading-data-science-products-from-india-that-made-it-big-in-2019/</a></div>
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9. Handle missing Data in R codes : <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-handle-missing-data-8646b18db0d4">https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-handle-missing-data-8646b18db0d4</a></div>
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10. Introduction to Feature selaction _ Game Changer in Performance :- <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/12/introduction-to-feature-selection-methods-with-an-example-or-how-to-select-the-right-variables/">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/12/introduction-to-feature-selection-methods-with-an-example-or-how-to-select-the-right-variables/</a></div>
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11. 5 Types of Regression : <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/5-types-of-regression-and-their-properties-c5e1fa12d55e">https://towardsdatascience.com/5-types-of-regression-and-their-properties-c5e1fa12d55e</a></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-75952120183573018182019-09-09T05:20:00.001-07:002019-11-12T21:48:04.312-08:00Machine Learning Article Links<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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1. Using Linear Discriminant Analysis to Predict Customer Churn: <a href="https://www.datascience.com/blog/predicting-customer-churn-with-a-discriminant-analysis">https://www.datascience.com/blog/predicting-customer-churn-with-a-discriminant-analysis</a><br />
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2. Choosing the Correct Type of Regression Analysis: <a href="https://statisticsbyjim.com/regression/choosing-regression-analysis/">https://statisticsbyjim.com/regression/choosing-regression-analysis/</a><br />
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3. 8 Tactics to Combat Imbalanced Classes in Your Machine Learning Dataset: <a href="https://machinelearningmastery.com/tactics-to-combat-imbalanced-classes-in-your-machine-learning-dataset/">https://machinelearningmastery.com/tactics-to-combat-imbalanced-classes-in-your-machine-learning-dataset/</a><br />
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4. Benchmarking 20 Machine Learning Models Accuracy and Speed: <a href="https://rpubs.com/m3cinc/Benchmarking_20_Machine_Learning_Models_Accuracy_and_Speed">https://rpubs.com/m3cinc/Benchmarking_20_Machine_Learning_Models_Accuracy_and_Speed</a></div>
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5. Learn Artificial Intelligence with Machine Learning - 2019 : <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiC1BBKTqkA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiC1BBKTqkA</a></div>
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6. 11 Important Model Evaluation Metrics for Machine Learning Everyone should know : <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/08/11-important-model-evaluation-error-metrics/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/08/11-important-model-evaluation-error-metrics/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29</a></div>
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7. Comparing supervised learning algorithms : <a href="https://www.dataschool.io/comparing-supervised-learning-algorithms/">https://www.dataschool.io/comparing-supervised-learning-algorithms/</a></div>
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8. Do you know how to choose the right machine learning algorithm among 7 different types? : <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/do-you-know-how-to-choose-the-right-machine-learning-algorithm-among-7-different-types-295d0b0c7f60">https://towardsdatascience.com/do-you-know-how-to-choose-the-right-machine-learning-algorithm-among-7-different-types-295d0b0c7f60</a></div>
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9. How to build Ensemble Models in machine learning? (with code in R) : <a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2017/02/introduction-to-ensembling-along-with-implementation-in-r/">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2017/02/introduction-to-ensembling-along-with-implementation-in-r/</a><br />
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10. <span style="background-color: white; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.84); font-family: medium-content-title-font, Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;">Fundamental Techniques of Feature Engineering for Machine Learning : </span><a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/feature-engineering-for-machine-learning-3a5e293a5114">https://towardsdatascience.com/feature-engineering-for-machine-learning-3a5e293a5114</a><br />
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11. <span style="background-color: white; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.84); font-family: medium-content-title-font, Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-weight: inherit;">Machine Learning Algorithms: Which One to Choose for Your Problem : </span><a href="https://blog.statsbot.co/machine-learning-algorithms-183cc73197c">https://blog.statsbot.co/machine-learning-algorithms-183cc73197c</a><br />
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12. <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: poppins, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.5px;">Deployed your Machine Learning Model? Here’s What you Need to Know About Post Production Monitoring : </span><a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/10/deployed-machine-learning-model-post-production-monitoring/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/10/deployed-machine-learning-model-post-production-monitoring/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29</a><br />
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13. <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: poppins, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.5px;">Mathematics behind Machine Learning – The Core Concepts you Need to Know : </span><a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/10/mathematics-behind-machine-learning/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/10/mathematics-behind-machine-learning/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29</a><br />
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14. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: poppins, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.5px;"><span style="font-size: small;">How to perform feature selection (i.e. pick important variables) using Boruta Package in R ?: </span></span><a href="https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/03/select-important-variables-boruta-package/">https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/03/select-important-variables-boruta-package/</a><br />
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15. <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif;">Classification Accuracy is Not Enough: More Performance Measures You Can Use : </span><a href="https://machinelearningmastery.com/classification-accuracy-is-not-enough-more-performance-measures-you-can-use/">https://machinelearningmastery.com/classification-accuracy-is-not-enough-more-performance-measures-you-can-use/</a><br />
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16. <span style="background-color: white; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.84); font-family: medium-content-title-font, Georgia, Cambria, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;">Precision vs Recall : </span><a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/precision-vs-recall-386cf9f89488">https://towardsdatascience.com/precision-vs-recall-386cf9f89488</a><br />
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17. Check the comment on Cross Validation - Titaninc Study : https://www.reddit.com/r/kaggle/comments/dsf4gx/how_to_achieve_more_than_98_of_accuracy_on/<br />
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-43362283553619618082019-06-16T23:16:00.001-07:002019-06-16T23:16:19.778-07:00Retire @ 40 : Right Planning for An Early Retirement<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A young and
charming couple Ankit and Anchal, aged 27 years came to us for financial
planning. Anchal works with a pharmaceutical company as an Analyst and Ankit
work as Product Manager in an E-commerce company. They asked us several questions, one of them
was, <b>‘We want to retire at 40, Is it
possible?’</b> Post 40, Anchal wants to teach French and Ankit wants to start an
NGO. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Both, Ankit and
Anchal is 27 years old and planning for a baby at around 33. They are
planning to pursue their interest in respective fields till the age of 60 years
and later want to enjoy retirement. Till 40, the couple is expecting to
increase their salary by 7% p.a.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ankit has a shop
in his hometown, where he earns Rs 10,000 per month. They didn’t want to include
it in their retirement plan. So, we linked this monthly amount with their financial
goals related to their child’s education and marriage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f">
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</w:wrap></span></v:imagedata></v:shape><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_1" o:spid="_x0000_s1029" style="height: 181.8pt; left: 0; margin-left: 0; margin-top: .4pt; mso-position-horizontal-relative: margin; mso-position-horizontal: left; mso-position-vertical-relative: text; mso-position-vertical: absolute; mso-wrap-distance-bottom: 0; mso-wrap-distance-left: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-right: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-top: 0; mso-wrap-style: square; position: absolute; text-align: left; visibility: visible; width: 222.6pt; z-index: 251659264;" type="#_x0000_t75"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></v:shape><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_1" o:spid="_x0000_s1029" style="height: 181.8pt; left: 0; margin-left: 0; margin-top: .4pt; mso-position-horizontal-relative: margin; mso-position-horizontal: left; mso-position-vertical-relative: text; mso-position-vertical: absolute; mso-wrap-distance-bottom: 0; mso-wrap-distance-left: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-right: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-top: 0; mso-wrap-style: square; position: absolute; text-align: left; visibility: visible; width: 222.6pt; z-index: 251659264;" type="#_x0000_t75"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></v:shape><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We worked on a bucket
strategy for ensuring happy retirement at the age of 40. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In this
financial planning calculation, we have represented values on an annual basis.
However, we suggested them to execute the plan on a monthly basis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bucket A: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Age 28 to 40 years<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Surplus amount
[Gross Income – Gross Expense] was suggested by us to be invested for 13 years.
Hence, the surplus investment made at the age of 28 would be useful to take care of
expenses at the age of 41. Thus, expenses would be taken care of, till 53. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bucket B: Age 41 to 53 years<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Surplus saving
at the age of 41 years [Rs. 28,50,449] would again be invested for a period of 13
years, which would take care of the expenses at 54 years. However, expenses are
rising at 6% inflation rate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The couple
expects to receive a combined income of Rs 1,50,000 per month from the NGO, dance
and French classes. This amount which they would receive till the age of 60 would
be utilized in Bucket D. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_10" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" style="height: 33pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 269.4pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:/Users/QDS/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image003.png">
</v:imagedata></v:shape></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bucket C: Age 54 to 63 years<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Surplus saving
at the age of 41 [Rs. 28,50,449] would become Rs 1,56,55,838 at the age of 54.
And hence, the corpus is more than enough to meet the expenses at the age of 54.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Corpus
accumulated at the age of 61 was due to the investment made at the 48<sup>th</sup>
year from surplus saving. This amount is more than enough to meet expenses at
the age of 63. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_11" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" style="height: 60.6pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 270pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:/Users/QDS/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image004.png">
</v:imagedata></v:shape></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bucket D: Age 64 to 80 years<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After full-time
retirement at the age of 60, the couple also expects to reduce unnecessary
expenses. We create basket D at the age of 64 because the surplus saving at the
age of 51 is not enough to meet expenses at the age of 64. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, we decided
to use the corpus which has been built since age 41 from the combined income of Rs
1,50,000 per month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_12" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" style="height: 32.4pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 270pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:/Users/QDS/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image005.png">
</v:imagedata></v:shape></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However, the interesting thing is that corpus accumulated since age 41 from the combined income
of Rs 1,50,000 per month would be sufficient to take care of expenses tillage
80. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Apart from the retirement plan at 40, Ankit and Anchal also have
surplus to save for their foreign trips after 40. Proper allocation of funds
can accumulate enough amount of corpus for the couple to arrange four foreign
tours any time after age 40. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<v:shape id="Picture_x0020_14" o:spid="_x0000_s1027" style="height: 88.8pt; left: 0; margin-left: -.6pt; margin-top: 29.4pt; mso-position-horizontal-relative: margin; mso-position-horizontal: absolute; mso-position-vertical-relative: margin; mso-position-vertical: absolute; mso-wrap-distance-bottom: 0; mso-wrap-distance-left: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-right: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-top: 0; mso-wrap-style: square; position: absolute; text-align: left; visibility: visible; width: 160.8pt; z-index: 251661312;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:/Users/QDS/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image007.png"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<w:wrap anchorx="margin" anchory="margin" type="square">
</w:wrap></span></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For a child’s education, the couple would have sufficient time to build
the corpus. However, we suggest the couple to set a target of Rs 1,70,00,000
[Education inflation cost at 7% p.a].<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To reach the goal, we suggest the couple contribute Rs 5,000 every month to Equity Mutual
Funds. Mutual Fund SIP amount would be arranged from their shop’s rent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<v:shape id="Picture_x0020_15" o:spid="_x0000_s1026" style="height: 89.4pt; left: 0; margin-left: 0; margin-top: 137.4pt; mso-position-horizontal-relative: margin; mso-position-horizontal: left; mso-position-vertical-relative: margin; mso-position-vertical: absolute; mso-wrap-distance-bottom: 0; mso-wrap-distance-left: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-right: 9pt; mso-wrap-distance-top: 0; mso-wrap-style: square; position: absolute; text-align: left; visibility: visible; width: 159pt; z-index: 251662336;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:/Users/QDS/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image008.png"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<w:wrap anchorx="margin" anchory="margin" type="square">
</w:wrap></span></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For their child’ marriage, which might be approximately 34 years
later, the couple would have had an advantage of compounding. However, we
suggest the couple to set a target of Rs 1,40,00,000 [Inflation cost increases
at 5% p.a]. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For achieving this
goal, the couple needs to allocate only Rs. 2,500 in the form of monthly SIP
for the next 34 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The couple would
successfully be able to allocate funds towards their child’s future goals
because of the right decision at an early stage. If the couple delays the
financial planning for their child’s education till the time his/her schooling starts,
then the couple would be left with only 20 years to invest. Now, in the same
situation, the couple needs to start Mutual Fund SIP of Rs 15,000 instead of Rs
5,000 currently. This makes all the difference. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This plan works
for most of the couples who are focussed regarding their plans. However, above
all, they have proper guidance to allocate funds at the age of 28. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One should not wait
for a certain age to start saving or channel funds, rather, start early to get
the benefit of compounding.</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">NOTE: Current and Future Cost are not mentioned in the blog. </span></u></b></div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-14855864916297202362019-06-16T23:04:00.001-07:002019-06-16T23:07:03.265-07:00You’ve just started your career: First 3 things you should be doing with your money! <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">With annual
growth of around 7-8%, India is creating lots of employment opportunities for
first time dynamic and skillful young generation. However, it is proposed that
India should create more than 1 million jobs every month.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With more
employment and young people coming to work with decent salaries increase
money flow. However, around 90% of employed youth saves significantly less. This
is mainly due to lack of awareness. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For engagement
in this article, we have asked Mr. Singh to contribute, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mr. Singh has started
his career in IT company in Mumbai, with a salary of Rs. 70,000 per month. Mr.
Singh is 26 years old and he is single! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With my
conversation to Mr. Singh, he asked me to mention Top 3 things he should be
doing with his money.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Number 1 Thing: Identify the Goals<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Even before Mr.
Singh starts saving, he should have clear financial goals. Now, goals can vary
from person to person depends on a person’s priority towards life. Without a goal, a person might not align toward regular savings. So, above all, I would prefer
Mr. Singh to set up financial goals. Generally, financial goals can be
Retirement at age 60, foreign vacation every once in 2 years, etc. However,
one should also be clear on goals like kids’ education, Home down payment,
emergency funds, etc, even before Mr. Singh marriage and kids he should start
recurring saving towards these goals. Because with the help of very minimum
saving every month he can achieve goals efficiently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After
identifying goals, Mr. Singh needs to prioritize the goals. This will make 50%
job is done. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course, goals
keep on changing on the way, this also needs revision in between. For example,
we are planning for Kid’s education portfolio around 2 crores after 30 years,
but It may be possible kid wants to pursue sports. So, like this, there are
always changes in goals, and priorities also keep on changing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Number 2 Thing: Allocate money to the
Goals<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After completing
prioritizing the goals, it’s time to allocation funds towards particular goals.
Basically, there are two ways to start investing in particular goals a)
Recurring investment (monthly/quarterly) b) Lumpsum investment. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mutual Funds are
the best products to allocate money. Because, in mutual funds, there are open-ended funds which can be liquidated anytime, can be modified according to
needs, can be track performance on daily bases, etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mr. Singh has
just started this career, so I would suggest him to start SIP [Systematic
Investment Plan]. Mr. Singh can allocate different mutual funds SIPs to
different goals. For example, Mr. Singh is planning to save Rs. 15,000 every
month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, out of Rs. 15,000, Rs. 2000
can be allocated to Long Term goals, Rs. 5,000 and Rs. 3,000 can be allocated
to different goals according to priority. Now, left Rs. 5,000 can be allocated
to emergency funds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once, emergency fund
reaches a certain limit, an extra amount of money can be diverted to another less prioritized goal. [Allocations of funds depends on the client’s risk level and
goals priorities]. Now, to execute the financial planning and to finalize funds
allocation we request Mr. Sing to take a look at Number 3 Thing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Number 3 Thing: Hire Professional
Financial planner:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Hiring a professional financial planner is very important. If you have the right knowledge
and understand financial products and its flavors, and mainly if you
think you have time to track financial plan and modify goals according to
needs, then there is no need to hire professional help.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You have to ask
this question to yourself. If the answer is ‘NO’, then you should prefer
professional advice by paying minor fees. You’ll get free advice also, but
quality comes with value, not price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Money management
is not luxury, it’s an essential tool for efficient. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-23147457621136266332018-04-29T10:00:00.000-07:002018-09-11T06:48:50.154-07:00Who Knows How to Cheat ‘Middle-Income trap’ <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“Great man come out of the middle class.”</span></i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> <i>_Ralph Waldo Emerson</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Economic definition of the Middle Income Trap is, where a country reaches a certain income level and will get stuck at that level. Many scholars have written books and articles on this topic. I’ll try to reflect my understanding of the topic and some consciences. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The middle-income trap to our generation is like, having an iPhone X on EMIs. Everyone wants luxury – due respect to their income class. Robert Kiyosaki said, “The rich buy assets. The poor only have expenses. The middle class buys liabilities they think are assets. The poor and middle-class work for money. The rich have money work for them.” </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXQ94vxculHRYKZsykAmkqDlnMsb1uUYMxvumeZnVoIf0dSOqTGxlqp6fCeoouViRhu45hRqoP5tLQMF_2R2IsOl6qDupvUH6jyix7-YFPtJj0bV5ek_vv6LZNKUq07qvnX7F6A9EwBfc/s1600/20120331_WOC698.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXQ94vxculHRYKZsykAmkqDlnMsb1uUYMxvumeZnVoIf0dSOqTGxlqp6fCeoouViRhu45hRqoP5tLQMF_2R2IsOl6qDupvUH6jyix7-YFPtJj0bV5ek_vv6LZNKUq07qvnX7F6A9EwBfc/s320/20120331_WOC698.png" width="312" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Prime examples of middle income trapped countries are South Africa and Argentina. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Yet only a few – most notably South Korea, Taiwan, and Israel – have managed to continue right up to high-income status</span>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">India has entered the middle-income position in 2008 and the per capita income is increasing slowly. The Per Capita Income of the country as per the World Bank’s 2016 estimate is $ 1670.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><u>The middle class is becoming the working poor. If they have one tragic event – illness, loss of job – they have the need for the food bank.</u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><u>In India, the IT/BPO sector helped many Indians to shift from poor class to middle class – between 2000’s to 2011.</u> Very quickly, these employees’ salary touched to developed countries salaries [in $ terms]. <u>India’s per capita income between 2000 and 2011 was increased with CAGR around 11.5 %, similarly between 2011 and 2016 increment was only CAGR around 3.03 %</u>. Are we heading towards 'Luddite moments'? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This IT/BPO industry alone can’t take India to the next level. If a country like an India fails to lift per capita income levels, <u>we would be in The Middle-Income trap by somewhere between 2025 to 2035. </u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><u>To escape the trap</u> Indian needs radical changes in Education industry. Need checklists on Infrastructure projects and manufacturing activities, proper policies to implement Industry 4.0. Government’s initiatives like, Make In India, Startup India, Skill India etc. are to strengthen the ecosystem. India’s reforms also got 30 notches jump in ease of doing business. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><u>We are in 2018, we still have around 8 to 12 years to prepare ourselves to cheat the middle-income trap. Every individual needs to upgrade learning and skills – especially middle-income level employees. </u></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">“Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds, cannot change anything” _ </span></i><i><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">George Bernard Shaw</span></i></span><i><span style="font-family: "century gothic" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></i></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-16631944866430633102014-09-01T09:07:00.001-07:002014-09-10T08:53:39.617-07:00The Bird of Gold<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I live in a
country where most of the people thinks that the Future is prosperous. Indeed Future
seems prosperous from this stage where the new government is working with full
‘Josh’. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Human Dream
Machines are spinning with full hopes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">India is
known as – ‘Sona Ki Chidiya’. The country is going to feel the change it has
never felt before. And I decided to postpone the idea to move to The USA – Just
because of two gentlemen, Prime Minister and RBI Governor. In next few years
(10-15 years) India is going to move beyond your imagination. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">But very few
Indians are known to it and going to participate in it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Just wanna
to explain simple example, Indian Finance Minister budgeted the amount of more
than Rs. 37,000 crore on Infrastructure. But ultimately who is going to get
benefits! Companies related in infrastructure industry. These companies are
going to expand their balance sheets. But what the common man is getting from
this FM’s step. Not Much. He is not participating in progress. Now, to participate
in these companies there are two ways. First, be an employee. Second, invest in
these companies. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">You got the
first way, right! The second says, either you become owner of these companies
by investing in equity (direct or indirect) or you fund these companies for
their projects. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now, the
very important thing of this example is, if you will not participate either
ways, you will not be a part of a new era – you will be drag down to the
inequality gap and middle income trap theories. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">As an
investor and advisor too, I am fully aware about the risk in investment
markets, but if we will not take this risk we will be exposed to the much
bigger risk - ‘Inflation’. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">FII (Foreign
institutional Investors) are dumping their money in India and participating
with huge margins, but Indians are still unknown. Invest in Equity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Before
Investing you need to get one question ou</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">tstanding. Till when I need to be
invested? Or What is my Future goal? Once this question is clear you need to
pick investment products accordingly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If your
horizon is for 10-15 years, and you have decided to go with MidCap Equity
funds, you better stick to your goal and investment vehicle. One thing is crystal
clear, equity is going to go up and going to fall, but it does not matter - it
is not going to stay there. For example a scheme of a Mutual Fund – ICICI
Prudential Value Discovery Fund – Regular - Growth fund’s NAV was Rs. 12.88 in
2004, In 2007 NAV was Rs. 37.90. But in 2008 crisis NAV fell to Rs. 17.22 and
bounced back to Rs. 40.53 in 2009. Currently, in 2014 Fund’s NAV is Rs. 96.99.
[Source: Value Research] If we had withdrawn in 2008 then we definitely made a
Loss. But my goal was for 10 -15 years. And currently we are getting a CAGR of
25.35%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In current
scenarios Indians are earning far better incomes. But please do not put them
lying in worthless investment products [investment products giving return less
than 8% or Inflation]. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Be Savvy for
your Own Hard earned money. Park it in a right manner with right investment
vehicle. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Choice is
Yours! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-55843772973671970952014-07-05T22:09:00.001-07:002014-07-05T22:10:27.019-07:00#Risk and its Future<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I surprised
many times when I came across special situations. It’s not about the events but
about its unexpected time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In this blog,
I have psychologically calculated risks of future and more importantly actions
and motions about that uncertain time. This could be easily understood.. if you
rewind your memory and look into the rear view mirror. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">When I was
in a high school, I used to hate study and book the most. At that times my
mommy used to say, if you’ll not grab decent grades you wouldn’t get admission
in graduation and later on you might find hard time to find a decent job. I understood why it was very important to
score well, <b>even if you don’t like</b>. It
is because the world has become very competitive. It’s a simple logic, if everyone is working
hard and creating competition, you must – at any cost – need to work hard to
survive. Now the situation is not created by you, <b>but by the people. <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Same way if
you are a computer engineer, and you don’t argue on buying a new computer, you
do probably slowdown than your peer group. In this case no matter where the technology
moved or knowledge about latest technology, but you need to understand the competition
and should support with its balance. The logic is same; urgency of compute may
not be created by you, <b>but by the people
and competition.</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In near
future same situation would be there in an investment. If everyone around you is exposed to higher
risks, you should not afford to take less risk. If people are taking more risk
by investing in equities, no matter your risk attitude level, you would also be
forced to take higher risks. I know it’s quite difficult to understand the
situation.. But the situation is not
created by you, <b>but by</b> <b>the people. </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Something is
already in motion, it’s is difficult to understand. But, the future we are
talking could be anytime. And it’s human mentality not to act till the very
last moment – Change It. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This race is
never going to finish, we are bound to flow – heard behavior. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">At the present
moment you have an option to change you future, at very next moment it would
not be. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Put a reminder. Read this after 10 years and you’ll surprise. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-38103676264491998152014-04-26T23:34:00.002-07:002014-04-26T23:34:40.046-07:00Nothing Else Matters<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">No matter
how much you are earning, you going to find it difficult. Because, Bcos! You
are not putting that earned income at the right place. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now, what this
right place could be? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First,
decide your need. What are your goals for future? And then, according to that decide
the right place to park your money. There are lots of financial vehicles where
you can invest your money, like Mutual Funds – Debt, Equity, Balanced, Bank Fixed
Deposits, Direct equities, Bonds etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> One thing you need to care more than all these
financial products is INFLATION. If you will fail to beat inflation then it doesn’t
matter what you are earning, anyhow it is going to fail in long term. Let’s
take a small and simple example; In India on average inflation rate is 8 to 10
per cent. Return from bank saving account is only 4 per cent, which simple mean
your real rate of return is in negative 4 to 6 per cent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">You decide
to put 1 Lac in bank FD at rate 9 per cent and in the same year Inflation index
CPI was around 10 per cent. What progress you hard earned income made? Nothing.
Negative. Really! After 1 year, original value of 1 Lac becomes around 99 K
(inflation adjusted), Loss of 1000. Now after 30 years same 1 Lac would be
around 74 L (inflation adjusted), Loss of 26,000. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">My Friends,
it is your hard earned income, not mine. This is a right time to start. You afraid
of equity, Okay. Chooses financial
vehicles – at least which are able to beat inflation. If you will fail to do
so, You would be intelligent Monkey. Don’t fool yourself, we are human. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nothing Else
Matters – if you are able to beat inflation. Not even your small monthly incomes,
which might counts in few thousands. Only things you need to do it is by choosing
right investment vehicle. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">So close no matter how far<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="line-height: 18.399999618530273px; text-align: left;">Couldn't</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> be much more from the Heart<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Forever trusting who we are<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And nothing else matters<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
_Metallica <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-44320324751062807732014-04-22T20:02:00.000-07:002014-04-22T20:03:50.075-07:00We All are Owners <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I am a
computer engineer. I was rejected by Infosys on the interview day. Yes, of
course I thought there is no life ahead or maybe it’s going to be very tough.
Life actually becomes tough when we have expectations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Few days
back I bought Infosys shares and I became its owner. Yes, my ownership is small
but I can proudly say that I am a shareholder in Infosys. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Why I took
this move?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Simple
reason, I lives in India. Now why that makes sense? I live in Emerging
countries. Okay. Are experiencing change in our living standards and spending –
Every Sunday Cinema and McD, Yeah. Here in India Inflation would be high, let’s
say around 6 to 8 per cent. To beat this
inflation Bank savings and your piggy bag is not at all good choice. To stay
ahead you must look towards equity, like Mutual Funds and Shares. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now I know
it would not come easily, why should I put my money in share market where all
losses it’s money. Let me tell you one secret, Nobody losses money in equity,
intraday traders and greedy people loses money, Not Investors. But I also aware
you that not to choose random funds or stocks, before choosing your investment,
sit with your financial planner or advisor. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Let me share
one more example to enter in Equity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Almost all
of us have bank account, Right? Now, in that we all are having our saving and
Fixed Deposits etc. Why you put it in the bank? For safety of course! My Bank
is not going to default on my savings. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">My friends,
if you know and you are confident on your bank, then why not to buy same bank’s
equity which gives far better returns. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Even let’s
assume that you have 6 Lacs in your bank account. And somehow bank collapse.
Then you will receive only 1 Lacs on those 6 Lacs. NOT entire fixed amount of 6
Lacs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">By this blog
my motive is not to make you chase towards equity or share market. My goal is that we must consider equity while
investment. This is going to be a game changer. But I also aware you that not
to choose random funds or stocks, before choosing your investment sit with your
financial planner or advisor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-49740972793383255932014-03-30T08:46:00.003-07:002014-03-30T08:46:36.816-07:00A letter to my Friend <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I understand that it is too expensive to live in 21st century. These
are about those few things which I learnt from my experiences and observations,
things keeps on changing, you plan for something and when you reach near to
that goal, actually that goal might have been shifted. But, I do sincerely
understand that it doesn't mean we should stop planning. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">As we do day to day planning – the time we wake up till we go to
bed, why shouldn’t we plan for our future expenses? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I am very risk averse person. And I am not looking for very high
returns in small periods. But Yes, I believe that we can built big corpus by
small savings – Like it’s said that the journey on thousand miles starts with a
single step. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I have drawn my own portfolio with small investments. I am in
Personal Financial Planning and advising spectrum, it is imperative that the
first experiment should be on me. That is how I can become confident in
advising my investors and my clients. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This is how my first portfolio looks like, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I am going to start SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) with <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ICICI Pru Banking and Financial services fund – Rs. 1000 with
tenure of 3 or 5 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">HDFC Midcap – Rs. 2000 for 5 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Axis Long Term Equity (ELSS) – Rs. 1000 for 5 years<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Tata Ethical Plan A – Rs. 1000 for 5 years<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Apart from this I would also invest in National Saving Certificate
– Rs. 3000 in 5 year scheme.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I would also put my surplus in Birla Sun Life Floating Liquid
scheme – Rs. 5000. Liquid funds have
been considered as emergency funds. After six months I would divert strategy
for liquid funds. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I will also keep on looking these funds performance in periods. If
it doesn’t perform well on certain parameters I would prefer to change it too.
Including this I would strongly follow to do rebalancing in a year. All the
four funds are Equity funds, which would be eligible for tax benefit after 1
year under Long Term Capital Gain (LTCG). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I am not investing in Public Provident Fund (PPF) at this point. I
do have account. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">As per my bank balance I am not eligible for big investment like
real estate or gold. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Now the journey of thousand miles which was started with single step
let us see where we are after five years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">After five years the corpus would be 1.7 L more than if you have just
put in your bank savings account. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Now, If I use same strategy for the same next 20 years – till age
of 50 – the corpus would be 2.4 crore, where I have not calculated real estate
investment and other bonuses and commissions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Simple conclusion is that if I start small investments like Rs.
8000 per month, we would end at 2.4 crore after 25 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This is the power of compounding and benefits of starting
investment early. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-33594132776078133082014-02-27T23:36:00.003-08:002014-02-27T23:39:00.884-08:00Investment advice from an Artist <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In Finance there are more than one sub
sections under one word, like Banking finance, corporate finance, Accountancy,
Investment finance and so on. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Since the beginning of my professional
finance course at PG class, I was passionate to choose Investment finance over
other finance fields. It is not only about numbers and profits; it’s beyond
numbers - more I dig in more treasure I earn. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The most difficult hurdles in
investment profession are NOT technical knowledge, or valuations, or inflation &
tax adjusted returns from particular instruments. The most difficult hurdle for
an investment advisor is, How to convert her understanding about financial
markets and related products into very simple language so that client can
understand about her next investment move. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In today’s investment market I have
seen, investment advisors are not very much trustworthy for only one reason.
And the reason is that they have failed to communicate with their existing or prospectus
clients in layman language. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">How can a professional advisor expect,
a client having three to four timber factories would understand that when the
interest rate goes up and market finds hard times in liquidity positions, ultra
liquid funds are going to fall – which could be used for working capital etc.
Or how can a professional advisor expect, a retired school teacher would
understand that falling rupee is good sign to add export oriented funds into a portfolio
– which could be used as monthly income from high dividends. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I sincerely believe that if we as
professionals would not adapt new ways – especially creative ways to make our
clients understand what they are investing in and why it is important. We need
to remove technical jargons and fancy talks covered with finance phrases. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I tried to come up with a story in my
blog [<a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/07/why-my-batchmate-should-know-this-money.html" target="_blank">Why my batchmate should know this money management secret?</a>] and tried to
explain retirement concept of Personal Finance. In one of my other blog [<a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/12/india-needs-second-wind-phenomena.html" target="_blank">India needs second wind phenomena</a>] I tried to explain inflation and debt issues with
my personal experience examples. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Talk to your client in its language.
Put it very straight and simple. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">And above all, it’s time to use our
right brain. Investment is an Art. </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-70402019305678812422014-01-13T20:30:00.001-08:002014-01-13T20:35:32.179-08:00High- 5 Steps for ‘Young’ Investor <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I have orbited
around sun 25 times. Most of my young friends are in the same age spectrum.
Most of them are earning more than 700% of their parents’ first salary three
decade back. India’s young generation is dynamic and full of passion, and is
earning plenty of money. Now, most of you would not agree on this logic. But
it’s true. Every time we feel
insufficient money in our accounts because of our high expenditures and
constant increase in prices. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I met n
number of young people, and most of them are confused in their own investments.
They have questions like, when to start? Where to put earned income? And How to
initiate? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">When to start?</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> You can start at any time, but
starting early will give you advantage of compounding. In blog [<a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/07/why-my-batchmate-should-know-this-money.html">Why
my batchmate should know this money management secret?</a>], I have explained
why one should start investing as early as possible. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Where to put earned income?</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> If you think you can build large
corpus by just putting your income in banks savings account, my friend you are
doing ‘big mistake’. It would give you negative real rate of return in high
inflation. [India is an emerging country and inflation would be high.] <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">How to initiate? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In simple
language, one should consider these five steps before investment. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Step 1: Individual’s Risk level<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">When you
visit a doctor they don’t give you medicine immediately, what they do is, they
first check up your blood pressure and do few sample tests for particular
disease. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">In similar
manner one should not directly jump to products, like bonds or equity or Fixed
deposits etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First step
should be to know Individual’s Risk level. If your advisor disagrees to do your
risk assessment test and continue advising you without it, you better ask her
to do so or you can change your financial adviser/financial planner. <b>Risk assessment test should be done every
year.</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Step 2: Individual must have a Goal<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">After identifying
your Risk level, move to further step. At young age very few astute could
consider goals. Goals are like, to meet marriage</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> expenses between the age of
25-30, child’s education expenses, dream Home or a car budget etc.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For example,
Education expense for your child could be very high [Rs. 20 L – 75 L normally].
Some may arrange it through loans, and then debt becomes burden to your family.
Some may have big bank balance, and it could be wiped out by high tuition fees.
But all of us, young, can build education corpus for our child in the meantime.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If you don’t
have goals, every one of us share mutual goal, Retirement goal. Everyone is
going to retire some point in time, let’s plan for that goal. Retirement is
common for working professionals and self-employed people. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Step 3: Identify your Investment
vehicle<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now it’s
time to choose right medicine. Investment vehicle should be considered according
to your Risk level and Goals. Investment vehicles could be Mutual Funds, Bonds,
Direct equity, Bank Fixed Deposits, Gold ETF etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">All these
vehicles have risk-return rewards. Through these products investor can make
portfolio for a particulate goal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">It is
preferable to have different portfolios for different goals. For example, if
your age is 26 and you have a portfolio for a car in next 5 years, you must not
mix it with your retirement goal portfolio. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Step 4: Re-balancing<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Re-balancing
is crucial. For example, you have a portfolio for a dream home seven years down
the line. For high returns initially you build portfolio with equity products.
What if at 6<sup>th</sup> year equity crashes? Your portfolio gets affected and
reality of your goal gets into trouble. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">To avoid
this uncertain risk, <b>an investor should
re-balance it every year.</b> For example, after 5 years convert portfolio from
equity to debt funds [or when equity gives good returns - direct interest into
debt funds]. And in 6<sup>th</sup> year convert it to ultra-liquid funds or
bank RD. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">And this is
how at 6<sup>th</sup> year your dream home portfolio would be less risky. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Step 5: Take advice from professional
Financial Planner<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If you have
right knowledge and understanding about financial products and its flavors, and
time to track it then you don’t need professional help.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">You have to ask this question to
yourself.</span></b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> If answer
is ‘no’ then you should prefer professional advice by paying minor fees. You
will get free advice also, but quality comes with value, not price. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Money
management is not a luxury it’s essential tool for efficiency. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>Comment your
issues in money management. And How do you overcome it? <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<br />
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<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-7296584185676446952013-12-02T08:40:00.001-08:002013-12-28T09:31:53.136-08:00India needs second wind phenomena <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Last month I resigned from my job. I put resignation 2
months before I shift to Gujarat. In the meantime, I tried to search myself and
life beyond numbers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Since beginning of my PGP course I am passionate about
going beyond numbers in finance for better human to human understanding. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I don’t have big data and complex statistical tools
for research, so I decided to do it in my own way.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Every time I visited Select city mall in Saket, New
Delhi or Ambiance Mall in Gurgaon I feel my understanding about money is
imbalanced. So, to balance this understanding I visited streets of Chandni
chowlk and Sarojini Nagar market. And I found my answer. I get this answer
from stores like Zara to Shopper Stop, Blue-O to BMW showroom. From a chai wala
in Palika Bazaar to Electronic shops in Nehru place. From a fruit shop in Sadar
Bazaar to Ansal plaza at Palam Vihar, and many more..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">And I came to a conclusion that, India is trapper by
Inequality. And I believe that if policy makers will not act in a right
direction this gap of inequality will widen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Currently I am living in Sec-40 in Gurgaon, where I
have seen most of the people are living on rent. Areas around Cyber Park and
Phase-2 most of the working individuals or families are living on rented
apartments. I discovered very unusual things [due respect to
individuals interest - views are personal], where people having sedan car not
only one but two cars, without a place to park. Some of them are
having a big car than their home. They have money to pay car loan EMI but do
not have money to start a SIP (Systematic Investment Plans) for<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/07/why-my-batchmate-should-know-this-money.html" target="_blank">retirement years</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I might be wrong in my research, but yes, this is
truly inequality, where a person chasing luxury assets at cost of basic
necessity. The reasons they are unconsciously driven are, first, high
expectations from future value of money. Second, illiteracy in money
management, third, herd behavior [my neighbor is risk taker and she is
investing in real estate, even I also do better in real
estate]. Individual should take risk according to their own risk
taking ability.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In the end, to narrow down this inequality gap, India
needs second wind phenomena. If India fails to generate second wind
it will further drag down in inequality and an individual will suffer <a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/08/how-individual-indian-can-avoid-indias.html" target="_blank">middle income trap.</a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I am ready to bet on RaghuRam Rajan’s strategic
policies and leaders like Narendra Modi, who has capabilities to create
second wind phenomena. When next time game changes and ball falls in your
court, take advantage of it. If we'll fail to act in our money management <a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/11/next-money-fiasco-time-is-on-our-side.html" target="_blank">The next crisis</a> will expanse our
defaults. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-64157995662883531462013-11-14T09:58:00.000-08:002013-12-28T09:33:51.935-08:00Next money fiasco! - Time is on our side. <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Few days back I was wondering, who are the ultimate
victims in this bloody bath game? A conclusion is, we as a common people,
especially at the bottom and mid-level income people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In few of my previous posts I tried to explain that
the world is so much deeply inter-connected that at the certain times it is
impossible to channelize domino effect. When one country or an economy or a
bank goes down it do impact the entire world economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In 2008 we experienced that one Wall Street bank went
down and Indian markets crashed. Not only India, but the global financial
system was frozen. The US government took over AIG in $ 85 billion bailout
package. This $ 85 billion was indirectly tax payers’ money.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In future if there would be ever need of financial
bailouts countries and governments are going to do it at any cost. And victims
will be bottom and mid-level income families. They would face problems in
terms of unemployment, high costs [inflation], stagnant growth in salary
income, individual high debt etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">There are semi-strong signs that the financial tsunami
could rise again in near future, thanks to free flow of cheap money [QE
program].<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Then what’s the solution?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">According to RBI governor’s confidence and tactic
approaches India has potential to stand back again. But, I do a favor to
individuals that, we have time to hedge our savings and investment goals before
any fiasco takes place.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I urge investors to take advice from professional
investment advisors. According SEBI (Investment Advisors) Regulations, 2013,
investment services are going to strengthen in dynamic ways for investors and
financial industry.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I do understand that India faces problems in terms of
corruption etc. but financial regulators like Reserve Bank of India [RBI] and
Securities and Exchange Board of India [SEBI] are working to enhance better
financial system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">If we will not act on our individual financial
planning right now, time would not be on our side next time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-70921596869447521052013-11-05T23:35:00.007-08:002013-12-28T09:35:24.338-08:00Cyber world and Human world<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #111111; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 1.615em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Few days back friend
of mine asked me a question. What if I get all the investment and financial
advisory by just few clicks on internet? In coming few years why would people
come to you for financial planning or investment advisory?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">At some extend she
is correct. All the information is available on internet. Software and websites
has been built, which can create your financial plan based on manual inputs and
goals.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I appreciate her
views and upgrading trends in financial algorithms & technology. But ask
yourself, would you really put your future dreams or goals or savings and
trusting cyber world 100%?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In upcoming few
years you will have all the information available on internet, but how will you
differentiate those information – related to financial planning or investments
– according to your unique goals and risk taking ability. Out of n information,
how will you know which is right for you? For this, believe me you will need a
human touch.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">We all thrive to
grow faster than time, riding on fast paced improving technologies. But at the
end we all are mankind; we can feel the present moment and take bold decisions
based on situations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">However, I am taking
‘advantage’ of latest technologies and internet information and financial
trends to improve my clients service better and better with smile.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">What are your views
about connections between cyber world and human world?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-27937143287653511182013-08-10T23:56:00.000-07:002013-12-28T09:47:34.042-08:00How an individual Indian can avoid India’s middle income trap?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5696643683563918556" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">How an individual can avoid India’s middle income
trap? And why it is so important priority to act now?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
In this blog, I have given a glimpse of macro-economic connections with India
followed by how an individual can avoid middle income trap.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
In last couple of decades, more than two time world economy fall through gaps
VERY BADLY. Some can argue upon Asian Crisis end of 1990s than Dotcom bubble,
2008 Lehman Bankruptcy etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Did India learnt anything from it? Did India took any radical path to hedge
itself, according to its own demographic traditions, culture or people’s
attitude and mindsets? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Dr. Ruchir Sharma tells in his book, ‘Breakout Nations – In Search of the Next
Economic Miracles’, India will be able to put all young people to work because
of education system, entrepreneurial zeal, and strong links to the global
economy. But India is already showing some of the warning signs of failed
stories, including early-onset overconfidence. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
According to a research paper, ‘What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial
Crisis?’, current account deficit and foreign indebtedness, growth and
inflation rates, savings and investment ratios, real exchange rates, etc..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Many of these factors exists in Indian system, and some had been taken care by
Reserve Bank of India. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
According to my view, this current period could be far worse than post-Lehman
crisis. In my blog,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://rutvij-bhutaiya.blogspot.in/2013/03/past-2-years-next-2-years.html" target="_blank">‘Past 2 years <- ‘?’ -> Next 2
years’</a>, in third ‘?’ I have shared views.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>In
these times people are addicted to spending, thanks to growing income levels –
both in private and public sectors – and consumers’ confidence, see chart 1 –
GDP per capita growth y-o-y. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaaJ1d5S4lvMJiJPplOzVuiZJpyWxPaRhinGynKKjGDrpz6xs1GKEyrcJyLV1E4z8EKi8siB7mpHL2cbHv8uWyXmaxtItLqIa6blhgRC4HMJ8R3GOeF_ODRR8nQtZsYMDheAgjEsvFJ1w/s1600/GDP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaaJ1d5S4lvMJiJPplOzVuiZJpyWxPaRhinGynKKjGDrpz6xs1GKEyrcJyLV1E4z8EKi8siB7mpHL2cbHv8uWyXmaxtItLqIa6blhgRC4HMJ8R3GOeF_ODRR8nQtZsYMDheAgjEsvFJ1w/s320/GDP.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Source: Trading Economics</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
But it also supported double digit inflation. And Reserve Bank of India is
taking crucial steps to curb inflation at cost of growth. In near future if Fed
Chairman Mr. Bernanke stick to his words – taping QE 3 – then scenario would be
worse for India. And it is more likely to happen. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Now, what can an individual do to in such situations, where the pay hike in the
next future would be probably low?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
My views are,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Step 1: List down your long term (3 to 5 years) future needs and goals. Like
buying a house, child’s education, set aside emergency funds, building corpus
for particular needs etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Step 2: Try to avoid taking pure liabilities by mortgaging valuable assets.
Like Loans, other mortgage liability etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Step 3: If possible try to get rid out from luxury, by controlling current life
style by some percentage. Income inflows does not matter, where you divert it
makes difference. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Step 4: Stop fooling yourself – I am strong; my inflows are strong; I’ll
overcome the tide by myself. Sorry to say but you have neither strong exposure
nor time to track your financials. One of my famous saying is, ‘When it comes
about money you have a choice to avoid risk, by just paying little premium – in
terms of insurance or financial planner.’ <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Step 5: Get in touch with financial advisor or planner, who can help you to
build strong corpus and portfolio according to your risk assessment. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Think on it! Share your views and comments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-69866481923636866232013-07-12T10:13:00.000-07:002013-12-28T09:39:03.480-08:00Why my batchmate should 'know' this money management secret?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Few days back, I was analyzing Ameriprise India’s
second edition report - Trends and insights into the financial goals of Indian
consumers. ‘140 per cent increase in respondents rating retirement as a key
goal’, key change reported in the report.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In this blog, I have explained the importance of early
savings and investment with a simple story. Why savvy financial planning at
early stage? Just! Because of the eight’s wonder ‘compound interest ’.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Sincere money allocation with regular investment has
an ability to lift your boats without tide. Before making such decisions always
take help from financial planner and adviser.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Recently, my friend Aamer celebrated his first job
party at Pizza Hut. Decent salary! Decent company. Thanks! Aamer for the Pizza
party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Before we start our main course plz have a pen and
paper ready, so that you can note down few numbers, might you feel little
difficulty in number crunching. In this research all calculations are actual.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
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<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Aamer’s salary is 25000/- per month. And his current
monthly expenditure is 15000/-. Let’s assume that he decides to retire at the
age 60 (Aamer’s current age 25). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Everyone knows that prices are sky rocketing. At the
age of 60 Aamer’s monthly expense would be 1.6 Lakh, if we assume inflation to
be at 7% (we usually put it little high for safety in case it goes to much
high).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">If let’s say his survival age is 80. He must have
corpus of 3.24 crore at the age of 60 for his golden retirement period (If we
take inflation adjust return 1.86 %).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Real story starts now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Case 1: At the age of 25, he starts savings of 2500/-
only per month. At the age of 60, his total corpus would be A1, A2 and A3 (See
table 1) if he invests at 8%, 10% and 14% rate of return respectively.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Case 2: If he doesn’t bother about his savings at
early age, and starts savings at the age of 35 with 5% of increment in savings
compared with age of 25, with 4073/- every month (Because his salary has been
increased and he is able to save more at the age of 35 than 25). His corpus at
the age of 60 would be B1, B2 and B3 (See table 1) if he invests at 8%, 10% and
14% rate of return respectively.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Case 3: At the age of 45 he thinks, it’s quite late to
savings for retirement period. He starts investing 10565/- per month (increase
of 10% from savings of age 35). His corpus at the age of 60 would be C1 and C2
(See table 1), if he invests at 8% and 10% rate of return. Here we eliminate
14% rate of return because, at this stage it’s not appropriate to chase high
return with high risk.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Case 4: At the age of 55, Ahh! I need to save for my
retirement to have same lifestyle. He saves 65415/- per month (increase of 20%
from savings of age 45). His corpus at the age of 60 would be D1 and D2 (See
table 1), if he invests at 8% and 10% rate of return.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Initially we have calculated, required corpus of 3.24
crore at the age of 60 to fund his retirement lifestyle. None of the figure
from the table 1 came near to 3.24 crore. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">How would he survive his retirement? It’s actually
simple, just by increase of 1125/- per month. If at the age of 25 he starts
saving 3625/- (2500 + 1125) per month and if he chooses to invest at 14% rate
of return. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">These figures might confuse you a little, but there is
nothing written in air. All figures are actual, and calculated by financial
calculator. Most of us think, we have decent salary and having an international
bank account. Savings bank accounts are not sufficient at all. I bet that. I
haven’t shown comparisons with banks interest rates, otherwise shock could be a
very very high to my friend. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Moral of the story is,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="background: white;">when it
comes about<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23money&src=hash"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">money</span></a>,
you have a choice to avoid<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23risk&src=hash"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">risk</span></a>,
by just paying little<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23premium&src=hash"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">premium</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>- in term of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Insurance&src=hash"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">insurance</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>or to<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Financialplanner&src=hash"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Financial planner</span></a>.
There are enough options available in India to avoid personal financial crunch.
You just need is to bet on time. </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr style="height: .2in; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"><td nowrap="" style="background: white; height: .2in; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; height: .2in; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; height: .2in; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; height: .2in; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; height: .2in; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: white; height: .2in; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<i><span style="font-size: large;">in Lakh<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: .2in; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">C<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">D<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: .2in; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #c0504d; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">53.9<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">37.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">35.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">48.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: .2in; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">10%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">85.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">50.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #c0504d; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">42.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #c0504d; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">50.4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: .2in; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">14%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">223.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-size: large;">95.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #F2F2F2; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: .2in; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="80"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;">-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Table 1 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-87792186729956236522013-03-22T07:40:00.001-07:002013-12-28T09:49:41.970-08:00Past 2 years <- ‘?’ -> Next 2 years<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5696643683563918556" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">2 years ago, I stepped into an uncharted path. My eyes were wet and heart was
rich with hope. Occasionally I think these 2 years were like endless
time, but it was just a blink of eyes. This story is about that time – blink of
eyes – and endless memories which I earned in Gurgaon.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Few years ago, when I came to this place, I had no
idea about what’s going to come next. I started my journey with ‘empty
boat’ – no big plans. Initially my aim was to fail as much as possible and
learn ‘at the moment’ from that failure. I also followed one advice, ‘keep your
mouth shut and ears open.’ One day, I was chosen to give introduction on
Microsoft’s case study – in one of the marketing lecture. I failed so badly
because of my poor communication skills, my confidence was broken. But step by
step I kept learning. And I am still making mistakes but also learning from the
same mistakes.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">My friend Aamer usually says, ‘To become successful
you need to work only on 2C formula – communication and confidence.’ Rest of
all techniques is secondary.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">What I learn in these 2 years and what my
understanding tells. Still I am not a professional, so it may not be certainly
correct but yes at some extend it is certainly correct, followed by question
marks. I am sharing few of these ‘?’ in this blog.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">1)</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 7pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Wealth
of a country is measured on certain parameters. One of the parameter is
economy’s GDP. Many economist and financial experts do predictions on growth –
based on GDP – and they compare it with other countries. ‘I’, taken from BRIC
nations is also a part of those comparisons. I believe that India should not be
in comparisons with other developing or developed nations. The reason is 1.2
billion people and this number is increasing day by day. India has large pool
of middle class people, do central bank’s monetary policies and government’s
fiscal policies are efficient to satisfy those people? The Fed government is
doing QE (Quantitative Easing) to strengthen US economy after 2007, Lehman
crash. Japan has recently adopted same strategy to pull out its economy from
decade long depression. If India faces any crisis in future, would same
strategies help?</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">2)</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 7pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Inflation
is a monster. Biggest worry for any emerging economy is how to control
inflation. India is not alone in the race of emerging economies, China, Brazil
and Indonesia too dominating their positions in this endless race. Their
inflation signals are not popping in RED! Indian central bank’s top priority is
to control inflation. I would not totally agree, but somewhat RBI (Reserve Bank
of India) got success. In future inflation would definitely rise up to
uncomfortable levels and the only reason would be billions of people. India
should not adopt other countries strategies, because this country has its own
structural problems and it’s not easy to manage billions of heads under one
roof, where in 2010 India’s GDP growth was decent but its HDI (Human
Development Index) rank was far behind, 134. This is not an ‘inclusive growth’.
No doubt India would prosper with economy growth, but is it in advanced state of
decay?</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">3)</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 7pt; line-height: 115%;"> <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Fortunately
India survived 2007 sub-prime crisis started with Lehman’s bankruptcy. But now
the situation is different, India is now deeply connected with global
economies. In last few years India has minimized trade barriers to boost economy
health. Some companies are experiencing and struggling to keep sustainable
growth levels, impact of Euro crisis. What if, in future again global tsunami
hit our shores, would India be auspicious? How deep impacts would be?</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">People saying that, world leaders would break global
tsunami and we have learned and adopted lessons from past crisis. People use to
say same things in Great Depression and Asian crisis and here we are again, met
crisis. This is a vicious circle, it will come again, but the point is do we
have any option to create safe havens and if yes, are we working towards it? Or
India is only interested in chasing double digit GDP figures?</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I would be happy if anyone of you revert me on these
question marks. Kindly correct me if I am wrong, it would help me.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">You can also send me mail to reply these questions<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>rutvij.bhutaiya@gmail.com.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-16899117733671063202012-12-26T02:46:00.002-08:002013-12-28T09:50:42.912-08:00India: 20(13) and beyond <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In this blog I have made a point about what I know and
understand regards the connectivity in the world of finance from global to India.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5696643683563918556" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Few years back – before 2008 global financial crisis –
India was a different country. Current aspects are changed for this emerging
economy, known as ‘I’ in BRICs nations. Economics and financial experts from
around the world including some of the major investment banks and credit rating
agencies are predicting India to grow more than 6% of GDP in 2013. But whether
it’s actually possible, or are they just trying to surge investors’ confidence.
Even Indian government and Ministry of Finance too expecting record break
growth in the near future. I would not disagree on India’s future opportunities
and resources, but I certainly disagree on application and taking action plans.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Most of the people around the world believe that the
year 2013 would be worse than past year(s). Re-elected the USA president, Barak
Obama has a chance to put American economy back on growth, where the country is
already bankrupt – the US fiscal deficit 103% of GDP. Year 2013 would decide
whether Democratic Party in the US is able to raise taxes and cut expenses and
helping the economy from fiscal cliff. To overcome unemployment issue America
needs radical innovations, like nation introduced computers, dot com and social
media. If the US will fail, the impact on India would be far beyond than 2008
global crisis.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">On other end of the Atlantic Ocean recession is taking
shape. European crisis lead by Greece’s sovereign debt and its consequences
would trigger tsunami around the world. Last quarter the UK reported slowdown
with negative sign. Germany, which is the only hope to bring out Euro from
collapse, contracted in a last quarter. Currency Euro is the bond, which keeps
European countries together in peace and prosperity state. I wish
this bond is unbreakable, because this planet really doesn’t want to bleed in
the name of World wars in upcoming future. European Union is leader in trade
with India – around 18% of trade. Euro fall would stop India’s roaring growth
engines.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Not far from European land, there is crisis in Syria
too, conflict between Israel and Palestine, Iran nuclear dispute. These all
event has direct or indirect effect on India, in terms of import of crude oil
or production of natural resources like gas and oil. If it continues, world
would be impacted on supply side and commodities price hikes.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><u2:p> </u2:p>This was the glimpse on world and
its events, but how India would looks like in 20(13) and beyond?</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I believe 2013 would become a game changer. I see year
2013 as one the biggest opportunity after 1991 reforms. In year 2013, most of
the developed economics would contribute slow growth, but Asian countries like
China and India has opportunity to attract investors from around the globe for
better returns and wealth creation.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">If India would lose this opportunity, Indonesia would
be the new ‘I’ in BRICs nations. The reason behind I called 2013 a game changer
is because; India has potential to grow beyond 6% of GDP, when most of the
developed countries are struggling to come out of recession. This is the
opportunity, it would not repeat in 2014, because center elections will be
there, and political parties would be busy in waving their flags. And after
that 2015-16, may be the developed countries would be back again on growth tracks
after long years of slow down. There would be the opportunity for India, but it
would be divided with others.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">But year 2013 would not foster India easily, where in
past, parliament was adjoined for days – winter sessions lost more than 120
hours, voting session on Foreign Direct investment (FDI) in retail by
oppositions, disagreement on mix policies – where Reserve Bank of India is not
ready to cut down interest rates because inflation is beyond comfort level.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Renowned global consultancies like McKinsey and Boston
Consultancy Group came up with research papers like The Bird of Gold: The Rise
of India’s Consumer Market and Paisa Vasool: The $10 Trillion Prize, and
predicted India’s future growth and emerging opportunities. This all mix ideas
says that probably India’s economy size would be double than current in next
coming decade. This is true, because in past few years we have seen India
putting its mark on world map.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">My doubts would be clear when government will come up
with reforms and new spirit of transparency, reforms like, land and labor
reforms, Direct Taxation Code (DTC) and Goods and Service Tax (GST), General
Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR), mutual fund reforms, financial sector reforms to
make them more transparent and resilient – Basel 3 etc. Including these
reforms, government need to stretch its comfort levels and should look towards;
inclusive growth and its implementation, human development, education system,
supply side bottlenecks, infrastructure and transportation sectors
etc. These are the core areas which would take India forefront, and
if government fails to implement these, India will definitely lose its shine.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">And crisis storm is taking shape; no country can
afford to ignore it, in terms of sovereign debt, Middle East disputes or Fed’s
Quantity Easing (QE) practices. If not in near future than in longer term. The
economy cannot go forever the way it is, because in economy people are involved
it’s not only capitalism. But India has opportunity right now to put itself
into safe haven, before global tsunami comes.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">I really want you to be little personal here, it’s
equally important that you – individual investor or a corporation – must hedge
yourself, because if the country is in trouble government would save it with<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><b>taxpayers money</b>. So, at the end
we are on the hook. And inflation is monster, and it would become much bigger
than it is today. Maybe we cannot realize it today, but tomorrow we will surly
going to pay the price. My view to escape from this is, to be less dependent on
credit and do not follow herd while investing. Invest based on your
understanding not only based on your knowledge.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">“A penny saved is a penny earned.” _ <i>Benjamin
Franklin </i></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-90889459379187326502012-11-19T01:31:00.001-08:002013-12-28T09:54:40.743-08:00Indian rupee falling to Rs. 57 per USD and rising above Rs. 48 per USD<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Currency fluctuation on international exchanges around the world can bring
sleepless nights to any investor. Domestic currency volatility is a very
fragile thing, and has impact on investors’ sentiments. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">The USA dollar simply known as USD is the highest traded currency
in the world. Euro takes second place in currency trading. In current weak
global scenario, Indian Rupee known as INR, has depreciated more than 25% in a
year, and has created deep impact on domestic and international investors’
sentiments. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Depreciation of INR against USD can invite mighty storm in Indian
financial markets. The main reasons behind its depreciation are USD in demand,
as investors thinking that it is a safe haven to park funds. Second reason is
collapse of International trade; India’s current trade deficit is $ 13486
million, 4.3% of Indian GDP. Third is capital flows, Indian notices more
capital outflows than inflows of foreign currency. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">The major impact of INR appreciation or depreciation would be seen
in Import – Export industry, corporate and organizations having large borrowing
of foreign loans, students going abroad for study and travelers coming India
for visit. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">How INR depreciation against USD impact corporate?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">When INR was at level 45 – 50 against USD, corporate have borrowed
money from overseas, and in current situation where INR is at 56 per USD, cost
of repayment of foreign loans and bonds are costly. Crisil Ltd. study shows
that Indian firms are defaulting on loans as cost of repayment goes up. In
meantime cost of borrowing too increased by 10%. In this scenario companies are
losing cost advantage from ECB and Federal Reserve Bank, because their rates
are at a record low than Reserve Bank of India’s benchmark rate. These events
have direct impact on corporate net profits, and can lead in low dividend
payments. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Companies such as Bharat Forge, Rural Electrification Corporation,
Bharti Airtel and Adani Power are heavily depending on overseas borrowing for
expansions. Sterling Biotech failed to pay $ 184 million of convertible bonds
that matured on date. It shows that corporate interest coverage ratio is
falling and interest payments are rising. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">INR depreciation has also created doubt in foreign investors and
FIIs. Fall in Indian Rupee would not give foreign investors expected returns,
and they would start pulling their investments from Indian financial <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">markets.
By this INR would depreciate further because it would create lack in foreign
currency reserves. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Research done by economist concluded that there is no direct
relation between Indian stock markets and exchange rate, foreign exchange
reserve, value of trade balance. But event would affect firms’ overall profits
and this could lead towards stock prices fluctuation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">One of the major impacts of INR volatility is on Import and Export
businesses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Major Export items in India: <span style="background: white;">Live
animals, milk products, wheat, rice, coffee, tea, spices, cumin seed, tamarind
powder, sesame seed, sugar, henna, herbal extract, medicines, fertilizers,
chemicals, salt, iron ores, minerals, books, leather products, textile, dyes
and pigments, home furnishing, footwear, brass items, Aluminum items, sanitary
wear, ceramic, glassware, flanges, fittings, embroidered and Zari items, pipe
and pipe fittings, handicraft, cables, medical disposables, laboratory
equipments, surgical equipments, sports goods, wooden furniture and various
other engineering and electrical products.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Major Import items in India: Cereals and
preparations, Fertilizers, Edible Oil, Sugar, Pulp and waste paper, Paper,
Newsprint, Crude rubber, Non-ferrous Metals, Metalliferrous ores and metal
scrap, Iron and Steel, Crude Petroleum and petroleum products, Pearls, Precious
and Semi-Precious stones, Machinery, Project Goods, Pulses, Coal and its
derivatives, Non-metallic, Organic & Inorganic chemicals, Dyeing, tanning
material, Medicinal products and Pharma products, Artificial resins, yarn &
fabrics including silk, wool and cotton, electronic goods, wood and wood
products, gold and silver, essential oils, computer software, etc.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In this Crude Petroleum and related products are imported around,
$ 73.7 billion or 32% of the total imports. Hence, depreciation in rupee will
increase import payment bills. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">What steps Reserve Bank of India can take to stop Indian Rupee
depreciation?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul type="disc">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5696643683563918556" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Reduce
trading limits for banks in foreign currency.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Increase in
interest rate for NRI and NRE bank accounts. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Open window
for Oil import companies to do direct payments in USD.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Issue
special type bonds targeted to Indians who live in foreign, this will
boost foreign currency reserve. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In INR depreciation or USD appreciation exports gets advantage,
but in this scenario, international commodity prices would fall and exporters
could not get advantage. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">What if INR touch 48 per USD?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">India would become cheap destination for foreigners and Indian
tourism sector gets boost. It works inversely, as simple as, it gives advantage
for importers. This event could take place if Government policies make India
lucrative in investment and results in capital inflow. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">But it has negative impact on Indian economy. Indian government
and Reserve Bank of India maintain rupee value against basket of currencies,
maintains level is around 50 per USD. In 2007-08, rupee appreciated by 13% over
USD. Appreciation in INR has negative impact on exports and its industry
margins. This has a little role to play in trade deficit, because India’s less
export business will directly impact on trade. When INR appreciated in 2007-08,
India’s FY 08 Q1 trade deficit was around $ 16,000 million. (In trade deficit
case major role is played by import payments bills.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Note: Study was done in July, 2012</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-15189422361771209052012-10-30T05:02:00.001-07:002013-12-28T09:54:04.402-08:00How can the company leverage social media - Twitter - to grow its business?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Twitter is well-known micro blogging social media
platform, where users can share, interact and build a network using 140 characters
or less. Leading businesses and organizations use this social media platform to
share news, latest events or product launches to their followers or customers.
Companies like, Dell, HP, Microsoft, IBM, Starbucks etc are leader in it.
Twitter currently has more than 140 million active users, generating more than
340 millions tweets per day on website.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Reasons, why companies should rely on Twitter to
foster its business?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Connecting with customers and
employees, by this company spread update on current or future activities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Branding, on twitter company can
promote brand image of its company through personal account or company logos
etc., even organizations can set profile background according to companies
brand and industry.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Marketing, companies use Twitter
platform to market itself by tweets update, latest news about companies, online
services to their customers etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Spy on competition, you can follow
your competitor too. And on their tweet updates you can make strategies, or you
can check how your competitor is serving their customers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>To grow upward in sales and profits,
Dell is the company which reported $6.1 million sales through Twitter.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Brand loyalty, by regular valuable
tweets organizations can increase its brand without any cost on social media
platform. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Effective and progressive methods, tools and
applications to grow business on Twitter,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Promote your employees and their work
story, by this employees feel proud about their company and followers get good
impression towards company.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Promote company’s blogs or articles,
and ask a question or explain what’s next? To keep interest level high.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Follow interesting people, if you find
someone who tweets interesting, check out who he/she follows.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Use direct messaging for one to one
conversation, and utilize short URL option to make URL tiny.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Communicate to others tweets by reply,
and retweeting on others posts. It is a best way to grow community.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Use hash tag or #tag, added to your
tweet acts as a way to create categories, groups or topics for tweets that can
others read as well. This can be use as promoting events or product launches etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Twellow, twitter phone directory that
short people by industry and makes it simple category format. This can be a
great way to find people in your industry or company domain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Tweet Facebook application, your tweet
will be automatic shown if you change your Facebook status.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Use twitter filter to survive from
overloaded tweets, this tool automatically filters devalued tweets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Advance search, by this you can find
old tweets based on words or phrases or by any hash tags.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>LinkedIn users can automatically
update their tweet status by their LinkedIn status updates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">· <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Manage your tweet activities by
software called TweetDesk; this can keep an eye on each tweet activities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"> All features and techniques mentions in this
research from twitter are free of cost. For this all you need is a professional
profile and to maintain professional status on all these social media websites.
Cost for particular activities are not too high, you just need a person who is
sound enough in finance knowledge and interest in social media activities.
Other alternative is to give access of these social media platforms to selected
person in a company or a department, like, Heads of Department, senior
analysts, equity researchers etc. In this I would prefer not to give access to
under matured person or newly hired employee in a company. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
@</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">rutvij_bhutaiya (Twitter) </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-46418444287231292722012-09-19T04:29:00.002-07:002013-12-28T10:11:18.209-08:00Adversity causes some men to break; others to break records <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">Mike
Ditka once said, “Before you can win, you have to believe you are worthy.” All
old philosophy talks, aspires human to win races, whether it is in surpassing
businesses or sports. But at the end it is totally and absolutely rely on a
person, who not only think he can, but as Mike said to believe in once
capability.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In
sports and business, competitions were there, and always will be like a cut-throat.
It is not about escaping from glorious events which challenge, but it’s all
about challenging those events. Performance in a particular event fully depends
on a ‘person’, it’s his or her goodwill or intangible assets which decides
whether its breaks confidence or breaks record.
Recently, Olympics decathlons, Dan O’Brien said in an interview, ‘In a
long run consistency always wins.’ It may be possible that at the end of such
events, success would not be with you when you say ‘Good Bye’ to playground,
but yes, it totally depends on that person, that how he is going to play his
next game. Either player wins or lose the game, there is always an opportunity,
an opportunity of learning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Confidence
plays vital role in ideology. And from where a person gets that confidence?
This again depends on persons to persons, how he built their rules and ethics,
theories which he believes in – for a game. I believe that if a person has done
enough net practice before the real game, he doesn’t need to pursuit trophy. At
the end; his confidence – which he earned from practice – keeps him calm and
winner. After that winning or losing doesn’t matter, what matter is learning,
so that in the next game he built himself enough to break records. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In
this I have mentioned person’s confidence in general terms, but how an
individual can magnetize towards record breaks or bounce backs in confidence.
It depends on individual’s commitments and its core competencies. No one can argue
on I can’t climb Mount Everest or I can’t take F-16 in blue sky, because only I
know my limitations and only I can define my boundaries. Now question is if
only I can define myself, then who is responsible for a breakout or record
breaks? We will never get this answer outside because it is already answered –
inside us.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5696643683563918556.post-65671396402389900012012-08-31T03:13:00.001-07:002013-12-28T10:00:17.835-08:00Impact of High Fiscal Deficit on Indian Financial Markets<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
Recent article by S&P rating agency, threatened India to degrade its rating
to junk. One of the reasons behind this warring is India’s fiscal deficit and
its consequences on Indian economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Fiscal deficit measured on two factors in any economy,
first total expenditure and second total revenue. Fiscal deficit is difference
between government spending and government revenue for particular year,
excluding money from borrowing. It is also known as budget deficit. India’s
fiscal deficit for FY 2011-12 was 5.9% of GDP and is estimated 5.1% of GDP for
FY 2012-13. But poor structured fiscal policies and external factors like, Euro
crisis, inflation, slow growth in economy etc. could bring fiscal deficit at 6%
or more level of GDP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In FY 2011-12, Indian government’s revenue was Rs. 8,
44,912 crore, and in Union Budget 2012-13 it was estimated Rs. 9, 77,335 crore
for FY 2012-13. In which, major source would be from tax collection, around Rs.
9, 35,685 crore. In total revenue taxes are contributed around 78% of total,
and in FY 2012-13 it is estimated to grow around 22.7%. This estimation was
made on new tax reform, Direct Tax Code (DTC), but delay in DTC implementation
may fall short on estimated figures.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Indian Government’s total expenditure is divided in
plan and non plan expenditures through the year. In FY 2011-12, government’s
non plan and plan expenditure was Rs. 8, 92,116 crore and Rs. 4, 26,604 crore
respectively. For FY 2012-13 is estimated by Rs. 9, 69,900 crore and Rs. 5,
21,025 crore for non plan and plan expenditures. In FY 2011-12 total growths in
government spending was 10.1 % against original budgeted 3.4% and non plan
expenditure was up by 9% due to high subsidy payments. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>It had direct effect on fiscal deficit
levels. Total subsidy for FY 2011-12 was Rs. 1, 43,570 crore and for FY 2012-13
estimated Rs. 1, 90,015 crore, these changes are due to high crude oil price
and its import which counts 33% of total and rupee depreciation in context of other
external factors. Non plan expenditures for FY 2012-13 are Rs. 9, 69,900 crore
in which interest payments are Rs. 3, 19,759 crore. This indicates increase in
borrowing, which is around Rs. 4.79 lakh crore. This results in government
securities and bond market volatility.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Suppose India’s fiscal deficit reach at 6% level of
GDP then its consequences could be worst enough to shrink India’s GDP growth by
less than 5%. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>India could
face high inflation, because of rupee depreciation and its impacts. And this
could cause exchange rate fluctuation. In FY 2009-10 when fiscal deficit was at
6.9% of GDP, inflation was all time high at average 14%. This would further
accelerate to balance of payments crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Increase in fiscal deficit and government spending
would necessarily increases interest rate of government securities. And this
would induce the rise in net private sector savings to support government
borrowing. And consequences would be ‘crowding out’ of private sector.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">How crowing out takes shape due to high fiscal
deficit? To finance fiscal deficit government will borrow from other countries,
and this will result in higher central bank’s rate and will discourage private
borrowings.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Bond market would see high volatility because of these
events. Bond prices fall and yield increases as market expects a higher supply
of government securities. Banks are largest buyers of government securities and
bonds, would face losses in particular investments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Estimations from the macro econometric models suggests
that an increase in the budget deficit by 1% of GDP would raise long term
interest rate by about 50 basis points after one year and about 100 basis
points after ten years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">In Union Budget 2012-13, Indian Finance Minister
estimates to reduce fiscal deficit to 5.1 % of GDP, through reducing total
subsidy expenses by 2% of GDP to 1.5% of GDP in next three years. But these
steps are not enough. Government can reduce fiscal deficit by increasing
revenue or decreasing spending. To increase revenue government can increase tax
brackets (including direct and indirect taxes), but by this demand will fall
and business investment activities will come down. Is last few years government
cut subsidies in sectors like education, health and poverty alleviation and it
created inverse effect in booming demand. For FY 2012-13 government target Rs.
30,000 crore incomes by disinvestment activities, but it cause negative impact
in long term. The Public Sector Units (PSUs) that the government disinvesting
are profit making firms like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Gas
Authority of Indi Limited (GAIL) and Life Insurance Corporation (LIC). From
these firms government earns lump sum amount at the end of financial year, and by
disinvestment government will lose profit on it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">As growth target remains high, cost of borrowing would
be at higher level. To support spending government is limited on money creation
because it will fuel inflation and external borrowing because it will increase
debt burden.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;">Implementation of DTC in next year and allowance of
FDI in retail and aviation would help India to bring down its fiscal
deficit. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Rutvij Bhutaiyahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10963360591984005551noreply@blogger.com1