2 years ago, I stepped into an uncharted path. My eyes were wet and heart was
rich with hope. Occasionally I think these 2 years were like endless
time, but it was just a blink of eyes. This story is about that time – blink of
eyes – and endless memories which I earned in Gurgaon.
Few years ago, when I came to this place, I had no
idea about what’s going to come next. I started my journey with ‘empty
boat’ – no big plans. Initially my aim was to fail as much as possible and
learn ‘at the moment’ from that failure. I also followed one advice, ‘keep your
mouth shut and ears open.’ One day, I was chosen to give introduction on
Microsoft’s case study – in one of the marketing lecture. I failed so badly
because of my poor communication skills, my confidence was broken. But step by
step I kept learning. And I am still making mistakes but also learning from the
same mistakes.
My friend Aamer usually says, ‘To become successful
you need to work only on 2C formula – communication and confidence.’ Rest of
all techniques is secondary.
What I learn in these 2 years and what my
understanding tells. Still I am not a professional, so it may not be certainly
correct but yes at some extend it is certainly correct, followed by question
marks. I am sharing few of these ‘?’ in this blog.
1) Wealth
of a country is measured on certain parameters. One of the parameter is
economy’s GDP. Many economist and financial experts do predictions on growth –
based on GDP – and they compare it with other countries. ‘I’, taken from BRIC
nations is also a part of those comparisons. I believe that India should not be
in comparisons with other developing or developed nations. The reason is 1.2
billion people and this number is increasing day by day. India has large pool
of middle class people, do central bank’s monetary policies and government’s
fiscal policies are efficient to satisfy those people? The Fed government is
doing QE (Quantitative Easing) to strengthen US economy after 2007, Lehman
crash. Japan has recently adopted same strategy to pull out its economy from
decade long depression. If India faces any crisis in future, would same
strategies help?
2) Inflation
is a monster. Biggest worry for any emerging economy is how to control
inflation. India is not alone in the race of emerging economies, China, Brazil
and Indonesia too dominating their positions in this endless race. Their
inflation signals are not popping in RED! Indian central bank’s top priority is
to control inflation. I would not totally agree, but somewhat RBI (Reserve Bank
of India) got success. In future inflation would definitely rise up to
uncomfortable levels and the only reason would be billions of people. India
should not adopt other countries strategies, because this country has its own
structural problems and it’s not easy to manage billions of heads under one
roof, where in 2010 India’s GDP growth was decent but its HDI (Human
Development Index) rank was far behind, 134. This is not an ‘inclusive growth’.
No doubt India would prosper with economy growth, but is it in advanced state of
decay?
3) Fortunately
India survived 2007 sub-prime crisis started with Lehman’s bankruptcy. But now
the situation is different, India is now deeply connected with global
economies. In last few years India has minimized trade barriers to boost economy
health. Some companies are experiencing and struggling to keep sustainable
growth levels, impact of Euro crisis. What if, in future again global tsunami
hit our shores, would India be auspicious? How deep impacts would be?
People saying that, world leaders would break global
tsunami and we have learned and adopted lessons from past crisis. People use to
say same things in Great Depression and Asian crisis and here we are again, met
crisis. This is a vicious circle, it will come again, but the point is do we
have any option to create safe havens and if yes, are we working towards it? Or
India is only interested in chasing double digit GDP figures?
I would be happy if anyone of you revert me on these
question marks. Kindly correct me if I am wrong, it would help me.
You can also send me mail to reply these questions rutvij.bhutaiya@gmail.com.
