Monday 9 September 2019

Statistics Articles Links

Data Science Articles Links

1. Extending churn analysis to revenue forecasting using R : https://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/extending-churn-analysis-to-revenue-forecasting-using-r

2. Exclusive Interview with Sonny Laskar – Kaggle Master and Analytics Vidhya Hackathon Expert: https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/05/exclusive-interview-sonny-laskar-kaggle-master-analytics-vidhya-hackathon-expert/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29

3. A Comprehensive Guide to Data Exploration : https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/01/guide-data-exploration/




7. Rich with Visulization techniques: https://bbc.github.io/rcookbook/








Machine Learning Article Links


1. Using Linear Discriminant Analysis to Predict Customer Churn: https://www.datascience.com/blog/predicting-customer-churn-with-a-discriminant-analysis

2. Choosing the Correct Type of Regression Analysis: https://statisticsbyjim.com/regression/choosing-regression-analysis/

3. 8 Tactics to Combat Imbalanced Classes in Your Machine Learning Dataset: https://machinelearningmastery.com/tactics-to-combat-imbalanced-classes-in-your-machine-learning-dataset/

4. Benchmarking 20 Machine Learning Models Accuracy and Speed: https://rpubs.com/m3cinc/Benchmarking_20_Machine_Learning_Models_Accuracy_and_Speed

5. Learn Artificial Intelligence with Machine Learning - 2019 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiC1BBKTqkA


7. Comparing supervised learning algorithms : https://www.dataschool.io/comparing-supervised-learning-algorithms/

8. Do you know how to choose the right machine learning algorithm among 7 different types? : https://towardsdatascience.com/do-you-know-how-to-choose-the-right-machine-learning-algorithm-among-7-different-types-295d0b0c7f60

9. How to build Ensemble Models in machine learning? (with code in R) : https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2017/02/introduction-to-ensembling-along-with-implementation-in-r/

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10. Fundamental Techniques of Feature Engineering for Machine Learning : https://towardsdatascience.com/feature-engineering-for-machine-learning-3a5e293a5114

11. Machine Learning Algorithms: Which One to Choose for Your Problem : https://blog.statsbot.co/machine-learning-algorithms-183cc73197c

12.  Deployed your Machine Learning Model? Here’s What you Need to Know About Post Production Monitoring : https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/10/deployed-machine-learning-model-post-production-monitoring/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29

13.  Mathematics behind Machine Learning – The Core Concepts you Need to Know : https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2019/10/mathematics-behind-machine-learning/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AnalyticsVidhya+%28Analytics+Vidhya%29

14. How to perform feature selection (i.e. pick important variables) using Boruta Package in R ?:  https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/03/select-important-variables-boruta-package/

15. Classification Accuracy is Not Enough: More Performance Measures You Can Use : https://machinelearningmastery.com/classification-accuracy-is-not-enough-more-performance-measures-you-can-use/

16. Precision vs Recall : https://towardsdatascience.com/precision-vs-recall-386cf9f89488

17. Check the comment on Cross Validation - Titaninc Study : https://www.reddit.com/r/kaggle/comments/dsf4gx/how_to_achieve_more_than_98_of_accuracy_on/



Sunday 16 June 2019

Retire @ 40 : Right Planning for An Early Retirement


A young and charming couple Ankit and Anchal, aged 27 years came to us for financial planning. Anchal works with a pharmaceutical company as an Analyst and Ankit work as Product Manager in an E-commerce company.  They asked us several questions, one of them was, ‘We want to retire at 40, Is it possible?’ Post 40, Anchal wants to teach French and Ankit wants to start an NGO.

Both, Ankit and Anchal is 27 years old and planning for a baby at around 33. They are planning to pursue their interest in respective fields till the age of 60 years and later want to enjoy retirement. Till 40, the couple is expecting to increase their salary by 7% p.a.

Ankit has a shop in his hometown, where he earns Rs 10,000 per month. They didn’t want to include it in their retirement plan. So, we linked this monthly amount with their financial goals related to their child’s education and marriage. 

 

We worked on a bucket strategy for ensuring happy retirement at the age of 40.

In this financial planning calculation, we have represented values on an annual basis. However, we suggested them to execute the plan on a monthly basis.

Bucket A:  Age 28 to 40 years

Surplus amount [Gross Income – Gross Expense] was suggested by us to be invested for 13 years. Hence, the surplus investment made at the age of 28 would be useful to take care of expenses at the age of 41. Thus, expenses would be taken care of, till 53. 

Bucket B: Age 41 to 53 years

Surplus saving at the age of 41 years [Rs. 28,50,449] would again be invested for a period of 13 years, which would take care of the expenses at 54 years. However, expenses are rising at 6% inflation rate.

The couple expects to receive a combined income of Rs 1,50,000 per month from the NGO, dance and French classes. This amount which they would receive till the age of 60 would be utilized in Bucket D.

Bucket C: Age 54 to 63 years

Surplus saving at the age of 41 [Rs. 28,50,449] would become Rs 1,56,55,838 at the age of 54. And hence, the corpus is more than enough to meet the expenses at the age of 54.

Corpus accumulated at the age of 61 was due to the investment made at the 48th year from surplus saving. This amount is more than enough to meet expenses at the age of 63.

Bucket D: Age 64 to 80 years

After full-time retirement at the age of 60, the couple also expects to reduce unnecessary expenses. We create basket D at the age of 64 because the surplus saving at the age of 51 is not enough to meet expenses at the age of 64.

So, we decided to use the corpus which has been built since age 41 from the combined income of Rs 1,50,000 per month.

However, the interesting thing is that corpus accumulated since age 41 from the combined income of Rs 1,50,000 per month would be sufficient to take care of expenses tillage 80.
 
Apart from the retirement plan at 40, Ankit and Anchal also have surplus to save for their foreign trips after 40. Proper allocation of funds can accumulate enough amount of corpus for the couple to arrange four foreign tours any time after age 40.

For a child’s education, the couple would have sufficient time to build the corpus. However, we suggest the couple to set a target of Rs 1,70,00,000 [Education inflation cost at 7% p.a].

To reach the goal, we suggest the couple contribute Rs 5,000 every month to Equity Mutual Funds. Mutual Fund SIP amount would be arranged from their shop’s rent.

For their child’ marriage, which might be approximately 34 years later, the couple would have had an advantage of compounding. However, we suggest the couple to set a target of Rs 1,40,00,000 [Inflation cost increases at 5% p.a].

For achieving this goal, the couple needs to allocate only Rs. 2,500 in the form of monthly SIP for the next 34 years.

The couple would successfully be able to allocate funds towards their child’s future goals because of the right decision at an early stage. If the couple delays the financial planning for their child’s education till the time his/her schooling starts, then the couple would be left with only 20 years to invest. Now, in the same situation, the couple needs to start Mutual Fund SIP of Rs 15,000 instead of Rs 5,000 currently. This makes all the difference.

This plan works for most of the couples who are focussed regarding their plans. However, above all, they have proper guidance to allocate funds at the age of 28.

One should not wait for a certain age to start saving or channel funds, rather, start early to get the benefit of compounding.

NOTE: Current and Future Cost are not mentioned in the blog. 

You’ve just started your career: First 3 things you should be doing with your money!

With annual growth of around 7-8%, India is creating lots of employment opportunities for first time dynamic and skillful young generation. However, it is proposed that India should create more than 1 million jobs every month.

With more employment and young people coming to work with decent salaries increase money flow. However, around 90% of employed youth saves significantly less. This is mainly due to lack of awareness.

For engagement in this article, we have asked Mr. Singh to contribute,
Mr. Singh has started his career in IT company in Mumbai, with a salary of Rs. 70,000 per month. Mr. Singh is 26 years old and he is single!

With my conversation to Mr. Singh, he asked me to mention Top 3 things he should be doing with his money.

Number 1 Thing: Identify the Goals

Even before Mr. Singh starts saving, he should have clear financial goals. Now, goals can vary from person to person depends on a person’s priority towards life. Without a goal, a person might not align toward regular savings. So, above all, I would prefer Mr. Singh to set up financial goals. Generally, financial goals can be Retirement at age 60, foreign vacation every once in 2 years, etc. However, one should also be clear on goals like kids’ education, Home down payment, emergency funds, etc, even before Mr. Singh marriage and kids he should start recurring saving towards these goals. Because with the help of very minimum saving every month he can achieve goals efficiently. 

After identifying goals, Mr. Singh needs to prioritize the goals. This will make 50% job is done.

Of course, goals keep on changing on the way, this also needs revision in between. For example, we are planning for Kid’s education portfolio around 2 crores after 30 years, but It may be possible kid wants to pursue sports. So, like this, there are always changes in goals, and priorities also keep on changing.

Number 2 Thing: Allocate money to the Goals

After completing prioritizing the goals, it’s time to allocation funds towards particular goals. Basically, there are two ways to start investing in particular goals a) Recurring investment (monthly/quarterly) b) Lumpsum investment.

Mutual Funds are the best products to allocate money. Because, in mutual funds, there are open-ended funds which can be liquidated anytime, can be modified according to needs, can be track performance on daily bases, etc.

Mr. Singh has just started this career, so I would suggest him to start SIP [Systematic Investment Plan]. Mr. Singh can allocate different mutual funds SIPs to different goals. For example, Mr. Singh is planning to save Rs. 15,000 every month.  Now, out of Rs. 15,000, Rs. 2000 can be allocated to Long Term goals, Rs. 5,000 and Rs. 3,000 can be allocated to different goals according to priority. Now, left Rs. 5,000 can be allocated to emergency funds.  Once, emergency fund reaches a certain limit, an extra amount of money can be diverted to another less prioritized goal. [Allocations of funds depends on the client’s risk level and goals priorities]. Now, to execute the financial planning and to finalize funds allocation we request Mr. Sing to take a look at Number 3 Thing.


Number 3 Thing: Hire Professional Financial planner: 

Hiring a professional financial planner is very important. If you have the right knowledge and understand financial products and its flavors, and mainly if you think you have time to track financial plan and modify goals according to needs, then there is no need to hire professional help.

You have to ask this question to yourself. If the answer is ‘NO’, then you should prefer professional advice by paying minor fees. You’ll get free advice also, but quality comes with value, not price.

Money management is not luxury, it’s an essential tool for efficient.