Friday, 22 March 2013

Past 2 years <- ‘?’ -> Next 2 years

2 years ago, I stepped into an uncharted path. My eyes were wet and heart was rich with hope.  Occasionally I think these 2 years were like endless time, but it was just a blink of eyes. This story is about that time – blink of eyes­ – and endless memories which I earned in Gurgaon.

Few years ago, when I came to this place, I had no idea about what’s going to come next.  I started my journey with ‘empty boat’ – no big plans. Initially my aim was to fail as much as possible and learn ‘at the moment’ from that failure. I also followed one advice, ‘keep your mouth shut and ears open.’ One day, I was chosen to give introduction on Microsoft’s case study – in one of the marketing lecture. I failed so badly because of my poor communication skills, my confidence was broken. But step by step I kept learning. And I am still making mistakes but also learning from the same mistakes.

My friend Aamer usually says, ‘To become successful you need to work only on 2C formula – communication and confidence.’ Rest of all techniques is secondary.

What I learn in these 2 years and what my understanding tells. Still I am not a professional, so it may not be certainly correct but yes at some extend it is certainly correct, followed by question marks. I am sharing few of these ‘?’ in this blog.

1)    Wealth of a country is measured on certain parameters. One of the parameter is economy’s GDP. Many economist and financial experts do predictions on growth – based on GDP ­– and they compare it with other countries. ‘I’, taken from BRIC nations is also a part of those comparisons. I believe that India should not be in comparisons with other developing or developed nations. The reason is 1.2 billion people and this number is increasing day by day. India has large pool of middle class people, do central bank’s monetary policies and government’s fiscal policies are efficient to satisfy those people? The Fed government is doing QE (Quantitative Easing) to strengthen US economy after 2007, Lehman crash. Japan has recently adopted same strategy to pull out its economy from decade long depression. If India faces any crisis in future, would same strategies help?

2)    Inflation is a monster. Biggest worry for any emerging economy is how to control inflation. India is not alone in the race of emerging economies, China, Brazil and Indonesia too dominating their positions in this endless race. Their inflation signals are not popping in RED! Indian central bank’s top priority is to control inflation. I would not totally agree, but somewhat RBI (Reserve Bank of India) got success. In future inflation would definitely rise up to uncomfortable levels and the only reason would be billions of people. India should not adopt other countries strategies, because this country has its own structural problems and it’s not easy to manage billions of heads under one roof, where in 2010 India’s GDP growth was decent but its HDI (Human Development Index) rank was far behind, 134. This is not an ‘inclusive growth’. No doubt India would prosper with economy growth, but is it in advanced state of decay?

3)    Fortunately India survived 2007 sub-prime crisis started with Lehman’s bankruptcy. But now the situation is different, India is now deeply connected with global economies. In last few years India has minimized trade barriers to boost economy health. Some companies are experiencing and struggling to keep sustainable growth levels, impact of Euro crisis. What if, in future again global tsunami hit our shores, would India be auspicious? How deep impacts would be?

People saying that, world leaders would break global tsunami and we have learned and adopted lessons from past crisis. People use to say same things in Great Depression and Asian crisis and here we are again, met crisis. This is a vicious circle, it will come again, but the point is do we have any option to create safe havens and if yes, are we working towards it? Or India is only interested in chasing double digit GDP figures?

I would be happy if anyone of you revert me on these question marks. Kindly correct me if I am wrong, it would help me.

You can also send me mail to reply these questions

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